June 23, 2008
By Dante Chinni
Sen. Barack Obama’s protracted nomination fight with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton not only seasoned the Democrats’ young standard-bearer for the general election, it also showed the kinds of places where he’s strong and those where he needs to focus his fire if he’s to prevail in November.
For a while, in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries, his weakness was portrayed as working-class white voters. As the primaries moved to the more rural states of West Virginia and Kentucky, the name of the group of concern morphed into the related “Appalachian voters.
”But a look at the primary and caucus results through the prism of Patchwork Nation’s 11 different community types reveals a couple of trends: First, Senator Obama did well among what is traditionally the biggest swing type in elections, the wealthy suburbs (“Monied ‘Burbs”). Second, while Obama may have problems with white voters who are less well off, particularly in areas with many service workers (“Service Worker Centers”), his bigger problem may lie with Hispanic voters, like those in “Immigration Nation” communities.
Primary results are not necessarily indicative of how things will shake out in November. For instance, Senator Clinton did better overall in America’s big cities (“Industrial Metropolis”), thanks largely to New York City, in her home state, and to the fact that Obama was absent on the ballot in Detroit. But those big cities will almost certainly fall his way in November.
Still, the primary numbers reveal where a candidate’s base is. And for the Obama campaign, there is a lot to like in the Monied ‘Burbs.
The Illinois senator captured more than half the vote in these places, which of late have proved to be crucial in presidential elections. These areas are generally well heeled and their residents well educated, and they are by far the largest community type Patchwork Nation tracks, with more than 84 million people packed into 304 counties. These are the places the media often end up focusing on the metro areas around Philadelphia, Detroit, and Cleveland that can swing key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio.
Furthermore, voters in the Monied ‘Burbs are closely split between Democrats and Republicans and can tilt either way.
The benefit of this for Obama is that he starts with good support in places he will need to win in the fall. If there is a downside in those figures, it may be that they help to stick on him the label of intellectual “latte liberal.” After all, the Monied ‘Burbs might also be called “Starbucks Central.” These are not generally struggling, gritty places.
Obama’s other big base of support came from communities with large African-American populations, “Minority Central.” He took 59 percent of the vote from these places, found predominantly in the South, and they could help him in November in places like North Carolina and Louisiana.
The primary numbers also have some less-happy news for Obama. He lost big to Clinton in two potentially key community types, places with high concentrations of service workers (Service Worker Centers) and high concentrations of Hispanics (Immigration Nation).
For all the talk of working-class whites, that is an enormous group of people, taking in several Patchwork Nation community types. A more specific group that might be crucial are the people who live in Service Worker Centers.
These are places where voters should feel an affinity for the Democratic Party. People there earn less than average, often don’t have health insurance, and are the ones facing the biggest crunch in the nation’s economic downturn. But Obama took only 34 percent of their votes in the Democratic primaries.
They are a group he will probably want to focus on in the coming months.
Obama may have his hardest sell, however, with Hispanic voters like those who make up much of Immigration Nation. The Illinois senator won only 37 percent of voters in those places; more tellingly, he lost them not only in the primary states but in caucus states, too.
Through the nomination season, the Obama campaign proved to be a master at organizing in caucus states. He beat Clinton among all 11 community types in the caucuses except for Immigration Nation counties, where Clinton beat him handily.
Obama’s trouble in those counties could prove significant in the West, in places like New Mexico and Nevada that figure to be battleground states. It may suggest a hole he will want to try to fill in coming months, possibly even in the selection of his running mate.
Source: Christian Science Monitor
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