New Latino voters dilute Florida's Cuban GOP base

Democrats now boast of having more Hispanics

May 9, 2008
By BETH REINHARD

Hispanic voters registered as Democrats have overtaken Hispanic Republicans in Florida, signaling a trend that, if it continues, could have far-reaching implications for the 2008 election and U.S. foreign policy.

Until now, the politically influential, mostly Republican Cuban-American community in Miami-Dade made Florida the only state in the country where, among Hispanics, Republicans outnumbered Democrats.

The growth among Hispanic Democrats is striking.

Since January 2006, when the state began identifying voters as Hispanic, Democratic registration has increased 18 percent. Hispanic Republicans grew by only 2 percent, while those choosing neither party are up 14 percent.

The trend reflects a fierce competition between the two major parties for the Hispanic vote, which could represent as much as 15 percent of the electorate in 2008.

"There are a few states where the Latino vote is going to be critical — definitely Florida, as well as Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada — and those are going to be battleground states in the national scope," said Lindsay Daniels, a strategist at the National Council of La Raza, a nonpartisan Hispanic advocacy group.

Both demographic and political shifts are fueling the increase in Hispanic Democrats in Florida.

Demographically, the voter registration statistics are the latest sign that immigration from Latin America and younger generations of Cuban Americans are diluting the influence of the older Cuban-American community. Those dedicated voters heavily favored Republican candidates and a hard-line policy toward Cuba.

Politically, an unpopular Republican administration saddled with the war and the rising costs of living has hurt the GOP's image in recent years.

A poll by the Pew Hispanic Forum released in December also found the incendiary debate over illegal immigration was turning some Hispanic voters away from the Republican Party.

Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, who pushed a crackdown on illegal immigration, lost out to rival John McCain, who favors a more moderate approach.

The GOP consistently won the Hispanic vote in Florida until 2006, when the community leaned Democratic.

GOP leaders also note that McCain, the all-but-official nominee, won the Hispanic vote in Florida's Jan. 29 primary. The front-runner for the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama, lost the Hispanic community to rival Hillary Clinton.

On Thursday, McCain released a new Spanish-language Internet ad: "McCain, Plan Economico"

His campaign announced this week that he will attend the National Council of La Raza annual conference this year in San Diego — an event he skipped last year.

Source: The Houston Chronicle